detikcom

detikcom, Jakarta - Our country, as this media had reminded before, is on the verge of anarchy. The loss of the lives of hundreds of people in East Java underlines this. Now not only robbery, theft, looting, and takeover of other people's properties happened. Murder is now also easy to commit, for whatever interest or against whomever; either for oneself, one's party, politics, revenge, or simply just to instigate chaos, triggered by local or national problems. The escalation of murders to other areas, including Jakarta, obviously with different motives, could only be a matter of time.

The current paralyzed state of law and order like today cannot be allowed to go on - or Indonesia will surely be beyond help. Order has to be restored. And this requires two conditions: a political system and process that can immediately produce a legitimate government and effective security forces.

At thsi time we have neither of these. Habibie's government is constitutionally legal. But he is illegitimate, because the constitution that promoted him has been abused and manipulated such that the result is not the will of the people. While what he needs is legitimation from the people. Because its ranks are filled with former New Order people, Habibie's government is not credible either.

The members of his cabinet are considered a liability because of their sins in the past, questionable morality and the commitment to carry on the reformation. Even worse, the former New Order officials who were considered to have had credibility is not appointed - either because of their challenge to Soeharto or because they are known to be honest - like Mar'ie Muhammad, or Emil Salim. In many ways, his capability as a decision maker is also questionable.

All the while, ABRI is not effective because it is still in doubt in how it should position itself. Clearly members of ABRI cannot be involved in the same way they used to during the New Order regime: easy to get appointment in a civilian position, participation in selecting the people's representatives, be in judicative positions, even at the top (supreme court). But they must also know how far they should retreat.

Must they be locked in a door, away from any outside political problems? Or can they still walk around on the streets? This doubt makes them difficult to enforce, and difficult to discipline and organize. The line between right and wrong for a member of ABRI is difficult to observe.

The primary choice for a political solution right now is the General Election in May 1999, followed by an MPR meeting several months later. This election is hoped to be more fair and just, and that everyone can participate. With this solution, the solution of the final status of ABRI clearly will not come before the formation of a new government. Because it is impossible for the current illegitimate and uncredible government to produce any decision regarding ABRI that is acceptable to the people.

This solution is good, but is not the best. The risk involved is still very great. Especially: can Indonesia wait that long? Because the longer the delay, the more difficult it is to stem anarchy.

The greatest concern is if, "in anticipation of the election," anarchy will be instigated as much as possible, by many factions, in the name of many interests, with many motives. And ABRI - which still contains political elements - that is still unable to position itself will not be able to effectively handle the anarchy. The victims could be not just a religious instructor in Banyuwangi, but political icons, reporters, social workers, NGO activists, and the religious affluent.

The riots can break out in many places simultaneously in a large scale. The future of Indonesia, and the fate of its 200 million plus inhabitants, will be at stake. Of course none of us wishes this to happen. Hopefully, "all parties" are aware of the danger and will assert self-control. But this hope does not eliminate the reality that the risk does exist.

Therefore the solution of waiting for the elections cannot be considered the optimal solution. The best solution is for Habibie to realize that his government is illegitimate and uncredible, and to try to fix it immediately. By showing good will - inviting factions outside the large system to participate in the government. In other words, by sharing power with others and to truly realize a reform government that is not filled only by his own group.

If this were carried out, the people will consider the government to be more credible and legitimate. ABRI will also be easier to negotiate with, to decide where its position should be.

Unfortunately this optimal solution is not carried out. And on the contrary, what happens is a narrowing of the consolidation model. Those who disagrees is discarded, even within the same group (Golkar). MPR is still adjusted by lavishly replacing representatives of not only Golkar, but also of other parties as well. Whose logic can accept the decision to include Faisal Tanjung as a representative of the special groups in MPR? What group does he represent? The moustache group?